Frédérique De Simone
29 May 2019 13:30
The rising temperatures at the surface of the water will cause more hurricanes in the season 2019 than usual, according to the findings of the provisional report of thenational Administration of oceans and atmosphere (NOAA) and issued by Aon.
The Pacific ocean is expected to be the most affected by the rise of the hurricanes, according to forecasters. There is a 70 % chance that the number and activity of tropical cyclones will be above normal during the hurricane season this year, reports NOAA.
For the Pacific basin, the agency expects to appoint between 15 and 22 storms, 8 and 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 8 major hurricanes, at category 3 or more, between mid-may and the month of November.
In the basin of the central Pacific, 5 to 8 tropical cyclones are expected. This number includes tropical depressions, named storms and hurricanes. A normal season consists of 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, while a season is considered superior to normal know 6 tropical cyclones or more.
El Niño in question
The continuation of El Niño during the months of culmination of the season is the main factor in the rise in hurricanes. “The ocean temperatures in the main region of formation of hurricanes are expected to remain above average, and the vertical wind shear is expected to be lower than average. All these conditions indicate that there will be a season more than normal, ” says Gerry Bell, the main forecaster of seasonal hurricanes from the NOAA in the Centre of the predictions of the weather.
“As we prepare for a new hurricane season, we urge everyone to have an emergency plan, in order to be ready to cope with the devastating effects of a tropical cyclone may have on the State of Hawaii, said Chris Brenchley, director of the hurricane Center to the central Pacific NOAA. It is essential that you know how and where to get official information, even in the event of a power outage, and that you have prepared your first aid kit before storms do threaten. “
The Atlantic will not be spared
The forecasters of the organization us government are also planning to appoint more storms and hurricanes between the months of June and November for the atlantic basin. They estimate a 30 % probability that the hurricane season this year will be higher than normal.