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More hurricanes than forecast are expected in the East

by

Frédérique De Simone

4 June 2019 11:30

A hurricane is added to the list of storms expected for the Atlantic region for the next hurricane season, which normally runs from June to November 2019, according to the findings of a report from the agency , Tropical Storm Risk of TheUniversity College London (UCL), published by Aon.

The agency is expected to appoint 12 tropical storms and 8 hurricanes, of which 2 major at category 3 or higher. The hurricane supplemental will be formed because of the winds saved, according to the forecasts of researchers. They mention that these winds will be slightly stronger than normal, mainly due to the persistence of El Niño. Normally this should have a slowing effect on the formation of cyclones during the season.

The researchers add that, historically, when El Nino is stronger, the number of storms in the Atlantic is reduced. The trade winds influence the vortex of the cyclone and the increase of the wind shear in the main development regions of the storms.

An activity slightly less than the standard

The latest forecasts trade winds were slightly lower than those modeled in April. For that reason, a season close to normal is currently scheduled. The index of aggregate energy of the cyclones, however, will be lower than the one registered during the period from 1950 to 2018. It is in average of 104 nodes. However, the forecasts indicate that this index will be that the 88 nodes in the current season, which is 20 % less than for the period 2009-2018.

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